Lake Lanier Blog

I have the news on Lake Lanier Listings and Sales for the second half of 2008. These are based upon FMLS stats for homes that were coded as being Lakefront or Lakeview properties with at least a single slip boat dock in place. Figures will not be exact, but they are a good representation of activity on Lake Lanier.

Listings:

1. There are 394 CURRENT Listings with an Average Listing Price of $722,000. This is a 13% decline in average list price since first half of 2008. The number of listings was 368 so about a 7% increase in number of listings.

2. There are 11 pending properties with an Average List Price of $447,300. There were 12 pending sales first half of 2008 but average was much higher at $870,00. This number is really not as significant as this number is much smaller and you cannot control which homes happen to go under contract at a given time.

3. Out of the 394 listings, 181 properties were listed from 7/1/08-12/31/08  with an average list price of $895,000. This is up just slightly from the fist half of 2008 of $870,000.

Sales:

1. There have been 31 closed sales. The average sales price is $671,000 with the average Days on Market at 107 (Listing prices range from $152,500 to a high of $2,350,000). The average list to sales price ratio was 6.7%. The average sales price is 22% higher than the first half of 2008! Days on market was essentially the same (109 first half of 2008).  This sales price average brings us closer to the average sales price we saw in the first half of 2007 at $623,000. So great news here!

** In the second half of 2007 there were 72 closed sales with an average sales price of $681,000. Average list to sales price ratio was 9.4% and average days on market was 117. So we are not far off other than number of sales from these figures.

Please Note: There are many homes that have been on the market much longer than this. The days on the market number is skewed if the home was listed for many months and then relisted after the first listing expired, with a new FMLS number and date. The days on market is only calculated from the last time the home was placed on the market with a new listing number and date. Many homes fall into this situation, so in reality days on market is likely much higher. **This has been our experience when appraising lake property and checking to see how many times the home was listed with new dates and FMLS numbers.

Expired and Withdrawn Listings:

In 2008, there were 531 homes that had expired listings with average list price of $847,000. Average Days on Market was 145. Again this number may be skewed. Many have been relisted and currently back on the market. The number of expired listings is 38% higher compared to the first half of 2008. The average list price is 13% higher.

There were 127 withdrawn listings in all of 2008. Average list price was $1,086,000. Many of these were relisted.

What does all of this mean?

The bad news is there are loads of listings for more competition between properties and the number of sales is less than the same time last year. The GOOD news, there were more sales in the second half of 2008 than the first half  of 2008 and the average sale price is 22% higher bringing us closer to sale averages of the first half of 2007! Fantastic News! 

Also, the average list to sales price ratio has decreased by 1.3%.

Other than the over abundance of Lake Lanier Listings, if the average list price stays stable, then it would stand to reason that our average sales price for the first half of 2009 will increase. It did the second half of 2008 so we expect that trend to continue.

**What appears to be happening here is that people are reducing their listing prices and there is a narrowing between the average listing price and the average sales price. The home sellers are getting realistic on the current market of their lake homes and the buyers are starting to increase in numbers, exactly what we need to start turning this market around!

The average sales price was only slightly lower than this same period last year.

Also the other great news is that the lake is just over 14.0 feet below full pool which is 4 feet higher than it was this time last year....Also great news.

With all the doom and gloom in the news about the real estate market, we have something to celebrate here! It may not feel that way to many lake home owners trying to sell, who have had to reduce their prices to remain competitive, but we are heading back in the right direction and that is a good thing as Martha Stewart would say.

Enjoy the good news and I will be back with you in the summer for the first half of 2009 Lake Lanier Sales Stats. In the meantime subscribe to my blog and you can stay abreast of the Lake Lanier News on a regular basis.

"Congress voted on a $790 billion economic stimulus bill that includes a modest expansion of a first-time homebuyer tax credit and restores to $729,750 the upper loan limit in high-cost areas for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA loan guarantee programs." http://www.inman.com/. The prior limit was $417,000.

This may help those on our North Georgia Lakes, including Lake Lanier, Sinclair, Oconee, Chatuge, Nottely and others to sell and buy these homes.

Of course we need to see an increase in JOBS in order for people to be able to afford these higher priced lake homes. My concern: The jobs that are being created do not appear to be the higher paying jobs that people will need to afford high priced housing. But there are always those who will qualify for these loans and now that this loan limit has been almost doubled, it could shake lose those buyers that have always wanted a lake home and can now get the loan which was so elusive in the past.

Happy Valentines Day to everyone out there.

If you need someone to appraise a Lake Lanier Home you are thinking of selling or buying, you need a Lake Lanier expert appraiser and you have found her right here: http://www.marytappraisals.com/

Mary Thompson

As a real estate appraiser, it is front and center just how severe the housing crisis is today. The Realtors here on AR know this all too well.

With a new president in the White House, the photos of the White House this morning when it was snowing and news about the housing crisis; being able to buy houses for the same price as a car, it got me to thinking....I wonder how the White House would fare if it was appraised TODAY.

I would love that assignment. I wonder if the White House has ever been appraised? Getting comps for this one would be a real challenge. Although I have seem some stately homes on acreage with huge pillars in front right here in the Atlanta Area, but somehow I think there would have to be a huge LOCATION adjustment.

Maybe I would go to other countries and use those Rulers residences as comparables, BUT when did they sell last? Certainly not in the past 3-6 months which the lenders require us to stay within when using comparables. Well maybe there are some listed for sale? NOT LIKELY! Of course someone buying this piece of real estate would likely pay CASH...No jumbo loan would cut it for this house!

The home was built in 1800 but renovated at least every time a new president took occupancy. Depreciation adjustment? Well of couse we have to look at its effective age, not its actual age. Cost approach to value would be an interesting development, but then the home is so old, maybe we can just say the cost approach is really not applicable in this case.

HOWEVER, this may be the only approach we can use given the lack of comparable sales. Use cost minus depreciation, plus land value and exterior improvements and you have the value for the White House....or DO YOU? How about historic value, well now you have to look at popular historic places that have sold to see how much historic value is worth? Would it be comparable to an Entertainment Moguls residence in Historic value? Maybe Donald Trumps house could be used as a comp? That one sold in the past year I do believe.

Who really owns the White House, WE DO, the taxpaying public!

How many acres are we talking about? "The White House sits on an 18-acre plot of land that, together with the Ellipse to the south (52 acres total), is called "President's Park." - The White House Museum

What if things went to hell in a hand basket and we had to sell the White House....Let's just hope that would never happen. Since WE the People own this property, we would all have to give our consent and you know that will never happen as we would NEVER have a 100% consensus of the hundreds of millions living here in the USA.

Well that is my fun, yet thought provoking thought for the day, would love to hear your input! Long live the White House and may it never decrease in value like so many other homes have.

Have a great week everyone!